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Although the decision that the CMA has launched this week is provisional, the truth is that it leaves the path quite paved with respect to what will be its final decision. And it is that, taking into account the allegations and evidence presented so far, unless some unknown document or information appears at the last moment, there is not enough reasoning for the CMA to move away from its provisional decision. Which would mean that, in April, the CMA will accept the purchase of Activision Blizzard. Although the conditions are yet to be specified, the decision seems not only defined, but will also mark those taken by the European Commission and FTC.
The provisional conclusions of the CMA have been quite revealing and have made their position clear, not only with regard to the purchase of Activision Blizzard, but also perhaps with a view to future similar situations. To begin with, the CMA itself has abandoned any argument covered by the console war as we have known it up to now. Argument that, on the other hand, was the main foundation of the opposition from sony.
These are the keys to the provisional decision of the CMA: Call of Duty is not a problem for Sony
The CMA endorses some ideas that have been circulating for some time and that have been formalized, among others, by the European Federation of Video Games. And it is that the classic console war no longer has a reason to exist, because it has been surpassed by the evolution of the video game market and its current situation. A market marked mainly by services, the cloud and the dispersion of devices on which to play.
Along with this line of arguments, we find the following milestones in the provisional conclusions of the CMA:
Microsoft welcomes CMA decision to offer more choice to Call of Duty players
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Acceptance of Microsoft’s arguments in terms of its growth and figures. Although the CMA was initially reluctant to buy because of the numbers it could mean for Microsoft, it has ended up abandoning this idea. And because? Because his calculations were not correct, when estimating periods and figures for which conclusive data is not yet available; For example, assess the weight that will bring Activision Blizzard to Xbox Game Pass in a period of 5 years.
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Rejection of the possible blocking of Call of Duty on PlayStation. The CMA recognizes that this blocking will not take place, both due to the economic and reputational loss that it would entail for Microsoft. He also assumes that he doesn’t have enough data to estimate whether PlayStation players will switch to Xbox for Call of Duty (particularly considering newcomers) and believes that the financial losses that Xbox exclusivity would entail are greater than those that would mean PlayStation losing it in its catalog.
Microsoft puts the cards on the table: all the conditions of the Call of Duty offer on PlayStation
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There is no similarity between the purchase of Activision Blizzard and Bethesda. The CMA separates both mergers, mainly because, as it itself admits, Call of Duty cannot be compared to any Bethesda game. Therefore, although the Bethesda catalog is exclusive, it cannot be understood that the same will happen with Activision Blizzard. The only case similar to Call of Duty, which the CMA recognizes, is that of Minecraft, which is available on all platforms and services.